Why ＂State Compensation＂ Exits the New Energy Auto Market ＂Endurance＂
□ Our reporter Hong Ye Chen Yu Qiu Hui Dong
The national subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will be terminated at the end of this year, and the 13-year-old "national subsidy" for new energy vehicles will soon withdraw from the historical stage. At present, the "last fire" of subsidy policy is giving birth to the "Xiaoyangchun" of new energy vehicle sales.
The Central Economic Work Conference held recently proposed to increase the income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels and support the consumption of housing improvement, new energy vehicles and old-age services. After the exit of "National Compensation", what changes will be made in the pattern of the automobile market? Where is the power source of "battery life"?
"The last welfare" ignites the "Xiaoyangchun" of the automobile market.
"There is an oil car at home, and the second one wants to buy a new energy car. Anyway, I have to buy it, and I will quickly place an order when there is a discount. " On December 3rd, Lin Fengyi, a resident of jianye district, Nanjing, bought a single Model 3 at Tesla official website, with a total price of 277,000 yuan and a subsidy of about 11,000 yuan for new energy vehicles. The salesman told Lin Fengyi that the order is expected to be placed before the end of the month, and it is estimated that the "national supplement" will be completely missed later. Lin Fengyi, who had the will to buy a car, did not hesitate too much, and paid the deposit of 1000 yuan cheerfully.
There are not a few consumers who share the same ideas as Lin Fengyi. On the evening of December 9th, the reporter came to the experience center of Hexi Tianjie in Longhu, Xpeng Motors. In just half an hour, nearly 10 groups of consumers came into the store to ask for prices. "I was still hesitating. Since the policy is coming to an end, I might as well place an order now." Yule, who graduated from college last year, bought a car with a budget of 300,000 yuan. This month, she began to see cars frequently. "If you don’t buy it again, it will be too late. If you decide to buy a new energy vehicle, you will definitely place an order in these two days."
Policy escort to open the "golden decade" of new energy vehicles. Since 2010, consumers can enjoy the national new energy vehicle purchase subsidies ranging from 4,800 yuan to 12,600 yuan for bicycles. The "state subsidy" is about to expire, and consumers’ psychology is directly reflected in sales. During the visit, the sales staff of many new energy brand car companies revealed to reporters that the sales volume in November increased significantly both year-on-year and month-on-month. "Last month was the most delivered month since we opened." A salesperson of Weilai Space in Nanjing introduced that there were only six cars he signed for sale in the store in November. According to official data of Weilai, a total of 14,178 new cars were delivered in November, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%.
"Euler’s good cat has attracted much attention among young consumers, and it is also a model that we sell well at present." Zhang Jingjing, sales director of Jiangsu Suning Fengoula Store, said that compared with the third quarter, the sales of new energy vehicles in the store increased by about 50%. Among them, 90 units were delivered in November, and 120-150 units are expected to be delivered in December.
There are also many consumers who are calm. "If you want to get subsidies before the end of the year, you can only choose styles in the existing inventory, and it is too late to choose your own customization. After all, it is a big piece of more than 200,000 yuan, or I want to buy one I like. " Chen Xin, a resident of jianye district, temporarily dismissed the idea of buying a car.
Many citizens said that they would continue to wait and see. They believed that "new energy vehicles are just like mobile phones. Maybe if they are bought half a year later, their technical level can reach a new level."
Car companies have their own calculations about "insured price" or "price increase"
Seize the last window period before the "state subsidy" exits, and many car companies have recently "tried their best" to sprint sales. As early as the end of October, some mainstream car companies started the price reduction sales model.
Not long ago, Tesla introduced car insurance subsidies of 4,000 yuan and limited-time car benefits of 6,000 yuan, attracting a large number of "fans" to become car owners. "Now is the golden age of starting Tesla. It has never been so favorable. The actual price of bare cars can be reduced to a historical low price of 270,000 yuan." In deji plaza, a Tesla salesperson bluntly said, "This is a preferential plan to seize the subsidy that is coming to an end."
A number of new energy vehicle companies have also introduced a series of measures, such as subsidies for lock orders and time-limited insured prices, to encourage consumers to buy cars years ago.
On November 30th, Xpeng Motors’s official Weibo released a message saying that orders paid by the down payment within this year will continue to enjoy the national new energy subsidy, regardless of the delivery time. The subsidy difference caused by the time of licensing shall be borne by Xpeng Motors. On December 1st, Geely officially launched the "limited time insured price" activity, covering the main new energy vehicles sold by Geely such as Geometry, Geely and Link. On the same day, Euler Auto also introduced a "time-limited insured price" policy. For users who ordered and paid the deposit during the year and met the requirements of "national subsidy", the subsidy difference caused by the extension of vehicle delivery period was borne by Euler Auto.
"During the’ Double 12′ event, there are not only discounts for placing orders on the same day, but also some existing cars in the store are in stock, so you can pick up the car on the spot." The sales staff of Huawei Wenjie Store in Vientiane Tiandi told the reporter that if we fail to seize the best opportunity to buy new energy vehicles this year, we will not only lose the "national subsidy" for car purchase next year, but also usher in a wave of new energy vehicles due to rising battery prices.
At the same time, some car companies have firmly announced that they will raise prices. On November 30th, Guangzhou Automobile Aian announced that the guide price of its models will be raised by RMB 3,000-8,000 at the beginning of next year, and the users determined during the year will not be affected by this round of price adjustment; On December 5th, BAIC Manufacturing announced that for the adjustment of the official guide price of its miniature electric vehicle "Yuanbao", the four models adjusted this time all rose by 2,000 yuan, and the entry-level "120km pure cute version" was cancelled simultaneously. The official guide price of the entry-level version of "Yuanbao" series was also raised from 33,900 yuan to 41,900 yuan.
On November 23rd, BYD announced that it would adjust the official guide prices of new energy vehicles related to Dynasty, Ocean and Tengshi. "We issued the price adjustment notice because of two considerations: the termination of the state subsidy in 2023 and the price increase of battery raw materials. After the termination of the state subsidy, a car will lose 4,800 yuan to 12,600 yuan, but we have not passed all the costs on to consumers. The price increase range is only 2,000-6,000 yuan. In fact, enterprises bear most of the costs." Zhang Yichao, manager of BYD Wangchao Subei Region, explained that in order to protect consumers’ rights and interests, customers who paid a deposit before New Year’s Day next year but did not deliver the contract will not be affected by this price adjustment.
"Our 4S store will also launch some preferential promotions from time to time to minimize the psychological gap caused by rising prices." Zhang Jingjing analysis, manufacturers may introduce some new models that are more attractive to consumers to cope with the impact of the cancellation of the "national subsidy" and ensure that customers’ car purchase prices do not fluctuate greatly. New energy vehicle companies need to constantly improve their innovative R&D capabilities and market development capabilities, and create differentiated products to enhance their appeal to consumers and expand their market share.
For consumers, the termination of "state compensation" is not the end, but a new starting point. A number of brand sellers said that on the one hand, there will be a buffer period for price concessions to avoid ups and downs in sales data. On the other hand, a richer product supply is the key to winning consumers.
After the "low tide", enterprises fight for hard core strength.
"With the development of more than 10 years, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is nearly 6.5 million, which shows that consumers are not only driven by subsidies, but gradually recognize new energy vehicles and their usage scenarios. In the future, the new energy vehicle market will continue to grow at a high rate. " Yang Kai, secretary-general of the Provincial Power and Energy Storage Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, believes that after many adjustments, the role of "state subsidy" in the development of new energy vehicles has been greatly reduced, and the termination of subsidies has liberalized the market development space of new energy vehicles, which will promote the market-oriented competitive environment of the industry.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to speed up the research, development, application and promotion of cutting-edge technologies such as new energy, artificial intelligence, bio-manufacturing, green and low carbon, and quantum computing. A significant trend is that more and more car companies "break through" the price war and strive to build new competitive advantages in technology. According to industry experts, the power battery is the most expensive component in new energy vehicles, often accounting for 40% of the vehicle cost, which has become the key to the efforts of various car companies. BYD, which specializes in making power batteries, has more advantages in the future competition of new energy vehicles. In September this year, BYD Changzhou Phase II new energy auto parts industrial park project with a total investment of 10 billion yuan was signed and settled in Changzhou National High-tech Zone. At present, BYD’s national production capacity can reach 280,000 units/month.
In order to better control costs and ensure the integrity of the supply chain, car companies have made efforts to the upstream battery industry. Not long ago, Yinpai Battery Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by Guangzhou Automobile Ai ‘an, Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Car and Guangzhou Automobile Commerce, was formally incorporated with a total investment of 10.9 billion yuan to carry out the industrialization construction of self-research and self-production of batteries and the production and sales of independent batteries. Chery Automobile plans to invest 10 billion yuan to build a power battery factory, and Weilai and Xiaomi have successively established and invested in battery enterprises …
In the first half of this year, the output value of Changzhou new energy automobile industry cluster exceeded 110 billion yuan, the output value of new energy automobile vehicle manufacturing industry increased by 198.1%, and the production and sales volume exceeded 118,000, accounting for half of Jiangsu Province’s total output. The key to analyze its strong rise is to focus on the "core" of the power battery industry. Liyang and Jintan introduced global power battery head enterprises such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and Zhongchuang Singapore Airlines, thus realizing the development of industrial clusters.
Today, China has become the world’s largest country in the production, sales and possession of new energy vehicles. The consensus of the industry is that under the blessing of multiple policies, Chinese car companies have achieved transcendence in the field of new energy vehicles.
In the first half of this year, while the cumulative sales of automobiles in China decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, new energy vehicles achieved 115% growth, with a market share of 21.6%, continuing the high growth trend. The consumption of new energy vehicles in China is entering the second stage of intelligent networking. In the face of the huge "cake" in the new energy vehicle market, Internet car manufacturers have "entered the market".
"After the withdrawal of’ State Compensation’, the government intervention has been reduced, so that the market can be fully competitive, which is convenient for each main car factory to exert its subjective initiative and stimulate enterprises with more potential and core technologies to stand out." Zhang Yichao believes that the withdrawal of the "state subsidy" may affect the sales of new energy vehicles in the short term, but it will certainly benefit the sound development of the whole industry in the long run.